There are only a handful of TV shows that I watch*.  NCIS has been at the top of that list for years.  (And, before that, it was their predecessor, JAG.)  There is decades-long success built into what I call “the Bellisario formula”.  However, I don’t know if that success can be handed off.  (You tell me.  Comments are welcome.)

Story lines and character interaction suggest that CBS could be toying with the idea that Special Agent Leroy Jethro Gibbs (the show’s lead character, portrayed by Mark Harmon) could be getting ready to hand-off his team of agents to someone else.  In theory, that could add even more “realism” to the series, because real agents retire, or get transferred, or change jobs, or get wounded, or get killed.  But, in the world of TV ratings, getting rid of the central character could kill the series instead of only one character.

On the other hand, JAG survived the temporary loss of its lead character, Harmon Raab (who appeared on occasion, having left the Navy and joined the CIA for awhile, only to come back later).  And, NCIS has weathered the retirement of its first agency director, the death of Special Agent Caitlin Todd, and the death of its second agency director, Jenny Shephard.  But, none of them were Gibbs.  (There were even a few episodes in which Agent Gibbs went into a brief retirement — while Mark Harmon was re-negotiating his contract with the show.)  Trying to keep NCIS afloat without Gibbs might be like trying to keep Gunsmoke on the air without Marshal Dillon, or to keep M*A*S*H on the air without “Hawkeye” Pierce.  However, NCIS has enough teamwork, plot depth, and cast chemistry to make a handoff at least a reasonable consideration without series implosion.

Having grown up during the “Golden Age of Television”, I’ve seen well-written TV characters and have seen characters that were mere cardboard cut-outs of some script-writer’s poorly-researched, one-dimensional, escapist fantasy.  Leroy Jethro Gibbs is one of the most realistic, three-dimensional characters that I have ever seen on TV or in a movie.  Most of the people with whom I enjoy spending time are part Gibbs and part “Ducky“, the team’s medical examiner.  (Their chemistry builds upon the famous relationship between two other Bellisario characters, Thomas Magnum and his semi-mysterious friend Jonathan Quayle Higgins III – to whom I’ve sometimes been compared.)

Several years ago, it was my privilege to interview then- JAG co-producer Dana Coen.  He told me that character depth was foundational to a Don Bellisario production.  (Of course, as a viewer, I knew that….)  Shortly after the JAG episode that introduced Gibbs, I tried my hand at writing a JAG script.  (The few people that have read it, including one person involved in movie production, said that it was quite good.  But, alas, I have not met “the right people” to give me an opportunity to earn a living at it.)  My goal was to write stories that NCIS would investigate on Tuesday evenings, and then JAG would prosecute on Friday evenings.  I even said that to Mr. Coen during our interview.  Alas, he left JAG not long after that, and then JAG went out of production a season or two later.

I’m not much on being a “fan” of entertainers.  But, there are exceptions.  One of those few exceptions is Mark Harmon.  The more I read about Mark Harmon the man, the more that I like and respect him.  He is not cut from typical Hollywood cloth.  Having done a little acting myself (six plays and two movies), I see a measure of authenticity in Harmon’s portrayal of Gibbs that I do not see in many other TV shows (which, in turn, is why I do not watch them).  Very few other actors have that presence.  (And, the others that have it the most are all listed on my acting resume as people with whom I would like to appear in a Western movie.  With one exception, Tommy Lee Jones, they are also all military veterans.  Tom Selleck served in the National Guard for several years during the Vietnam war, and Clint Eastwood was a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division.)

Mark Harmon’s real life bears many qualities that give him the ability to portray Gibbs with the confidence and authority that makes Gibbs … well … Gibbs.  Despite having the incredible good looks that make most Hollywood men quite vacuuous, Harmon has lived a real life off-screen.  His father, Tom Harmon, had been a pilot in World War Two (and injured his legs in a parachute landing), who returned from the war to play professional football.  Mark followed in his father’s footsteps in two ways:  first by being an award-winning college football player, and then by going on television.  (Tom Harmon won the Heismann Trophy in 1940, and then became a sportscaster and an actor after one pro-football season.  Mark Harmon won the National Football Foundation Award for All-Round Excellence, and then went on to a stellar acting career.)  But, Mark Harmon has also worked as a carpenter, and once pulled two teenage boys from a burning car in front of his home.  Not your typical Hollywood pretty-boy.

At his current stage of professional development, Harmon is not sitting still.  Two seasons ago, he began producing several of the show’s episodes.  Those episodes also have a notable extra measure of authenticity.  It seems that Harmon works hard to truly honor those that he represents through Gibbs.  (It’s working!  The first fan mail that I ever sent to Harmon was to tell him that Gibbs reminded me of OSI agents with whom I had worked in the Air Force, and reminded my wife of her father, who was in Army Intelligence.)  That level of depth, authenticity and intensity is what separates great programs/movies from those that are merely good.  If he does leave NCIS, then my hope is that Harmon will next turn his acting and producting talents toward a classic Western.  (I’m already working on the script.  There are roles for all of the men named above.)

If there is a handoff, history indicates that it will go well — at least, for one season.  There was a surprise move to bring in Rocky Carroll to portray Director Leon Vance, who replaced Director Jenny Shephard.  Carroll’s intense gaze and rich baritone bring in a measure of authority and potential conflict with Gibbs.  That tension has served the series well.  It has only been in recent episodes that the audience has learned that Gibbs and Vance worked together as new agents, and that they share a friendship and professional respect that rides beneath the surface like the keel on a ship.  So, if there is a handoff, Vance will likely bring in a new team leader from the outside, thus maintaining the tension between Vance and Gibbs’ understudy:  Special Agent Tony DiNozzo, who recently skirted Vance’s authority during an investigation.  While the relationship between Gibbs and DiNozzo has evolved from father-figure to big brother as Tony has seasoned in the agency, the relationship between Vance and DiNozzo still includes a bit of seething beneath the surface — along with some well-earned respect on both sides.  If the show is handed off, then that tension will steer future episodes.

For the past several episodes, it has seemed to me that Harmon and the script writers have been building an exit ramp for Agent Gibbs.  That suspicion now has some extra fuel, as the USA Network recently announced that Harmon has been cast for an upcoming movie.

Given his many talents as both actor and producer, and his history as an award-winning quarterback, if anyone can successfully engineer a potential NCIS handoff, it is Mark Harmon.  But, will Agent Gibbs hand off to Agent Tony DiNozzo, to another agent on the team, or does “Coach” Don Bellisario have another player ready to come onto the field?  (If there is a new actor, my guess is that NCIS will bring in Max Martini, formerly of The Unit.)

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*  Hence, I rarely write about entertainment topics.  (Most of what passes for entertainment these days is ”junk food for the brain” at best.  Hollywood should pay me big bucks as a consultant, because I’m one of their toughest customers.  If a movie or series can pass my test, then it will sell.)